UTC strategic report: Terra

The UTC strategic report: Terra presents a general briefing put together by the Sol Observation Corps regarding the political situation and strategic possibilities present on Terra, the third world of the Sol-system which was then inhabited by early space age civilizations.

The report
By the authority of the Primitive Contact and Observation Agency, the crew of the Sol observation and analysis station has compiled the following report regarding the strategic prospects of the primitive world of Sol III (henceforth referred to by the endonym title of 'Terra') as of the year 732 quadrant 3 AWT, to be subjected to the judgement of the esteemed directors of our Commonwealth. Following the 3-year standard observation period as stipulated in the PCOA charter, we can thus present the following data.

General Overview
Terra is a cold-leaning continental world inhabited by the mammalian class sapient species 'Homo Sapience', which currently possess early space technology, though exceeding standard levels of communication technology found in this advancement group.

The political landscape dominating the planet shows early signs of pan-cultural consolidation, though planetary unification is currently calculated to have a long-term chance of 12.34% due to a lack of a decisive political unification preceding the acquisition of nuclear technology. Our analysis teams thus predict fractured space expansion to be the most likely long-term outcome at 67.21% without external influence.

Analysis of Terran Power Blocs
The strategic analysis committee of the observation team has compiled the following list of the most significant political power blocs found on Terra.

Alignment prospects: Exceptional
Zhōngguó has been identified by the observation team as the most significant power on Terra: hosting around 20% of the world's population and the highest productive capacity on the planet. Though only middling in development, previous steady growth indicates that UTC aid could theoretically cause the state to achieve the highest development status in a relatively short term. If given access to current technology the state would become the definite front-runner on Terra's stage

Whilst formally ruled in accordance with an authoritarian-egalitarian ideology, the state is in practice ruled through a system of hierocratic oligarchism. Though currently susceptible to conflicts of personal interest, the governing system has definite elements of technocratic administration present and it is estimated that diligent diplomatic manoeuvering will enable the implementation of the Epochian system within the timespan of 7 Juran years with a certainty of 91.23%.

Overall, the committee recommends Zhōngguó to be the primary focus in case of contact and expects it to become the primary ally and foothold of our Commonwealth on Terra.

Alignment prospects: Short-term: limited, long-term: promising
Referred to generally as the Western Sphere, the peninsular of Evrópi, the sub-continent of Northern America and various island states such as Nippon have represented the most powerful political bloc on Terra for over 240 years. Their strength deriving primarily from technological superiority spurred on by high rates of regional competition in Evrópi. Currently the Bloc still represents the most economically powerful sphere on Terra though its prominence is declining as states with more basic resources are implementing recent technology. For our further assessment, the survey corps has elected to omit the region of Northern America shall, as it presents a special case which shall be discussed later.

The Western Sphere is largely dedicated towards a form of democratic materialism referred to as 'Liberalism', though the details of this ideology vary heavily on a state-by-state basis. Though Shamanism is notably present and often invoked in state demagoguery, its influence is in constant decline and largely eliminated in the sphere's core area of Western Evrópi. The sphere appears excellently suited to the social aspects of Epochian thought, though its adherence to democratic organization will prohibit short term adoption of Epochian institutions. It is thus advisable to emphasise these social aspects while forging deeper ties inside the sphere which can be used to spur transition and block potential Audean advances. It has been determined that with proper involvement the sphere can be secured to our Commonwealth's side with a likelyhood of 98,32%. From this point, it is expected that Epochian transition will become increasingly likely as longer term strategies can be implemented, with partial transformation being given a mean time to happen of 18,3 years and full transformation 27,1 years, with 83,6% chance of full transformation in 32 years.

Overall it is our conclusion that the Western Sphere is to be our secondary target. Its initial advantage and political compatibility means it will be an important point of strategic use in the early years of contact before basic adeptness is reached with external technology, at which point it is expected the Sphere will decline to moderate, though not inconsiderable, prominence.

Alignment prospects: Short-term: extremely unlikely, Long-term: doubtfull/partial
The United States of America represents Terra's most recent hegemonic power and still maintains greater economic, diplomatic and military power than any other state. It is considered the leading member of the Western Sphere, though recent divides have caused it to act increasingly independently from the Sphere. Most strengths attributed to the Western Spheres are present in this state, though utilized in a more concentrated manner.

Whilst broadly adhering to the wider Liberal ideology as the Western Sphere, the state has a more pronounced presence of shamanism and due to factor such as its recent hegemonic status is more prone to traditionalist sentiment and less likely to accept external influence. Though this regrettably means our efforts of alignment will be significantly hampered, as the factors making the rest of the Sphere suitable for alignment are noticeably less pronounced in this instance, it is expected that Audean efforts will be equally hampered. For any longer-term projections, it must be observed that the general profile presented exists primarily as a mean between the various sub-divisions of the state. Some of these units are more in line with Western Evrópi whilst others are substantially dominated by reactionary and shamanist influences.

The present consensus amongst our analysists projects negligible capacity of ourselves and our Audean adversaries to gain a diplomatic foothold in the state, after which two possible long-term scenarios follow: The first possibility is that the Audeans and ourselves let the state be, at which point the lack of external development will cause the state to lose most relevance as more easily aligned states finish their initial stages of upliftment. The second scenario occurs of either ourselves or the Audeans decide to target the more easily alignable sub-divisions, leading to a long term inevitability that the state shall fracture among these divisions. As the occurrence of these scenarios relies entirely on the discretion of the Audeans and yourselves, the corps is unable to provide projections regarding the likelihood either will occur.

Terran resource evaluation
Our prospecting analysis has thus far failed to detect anomalous resource concentrations aside from an above-average deposit of bauxite. High levels of geological activity might also provide adequate prospects for power generation and base-resource extraction, but overall the analysis team concludes the resource significance of the world to be middling and should only be regarded as a minor consideration.